Ontario’s green transition will be similar to those in other jurisdictions in that it will impact workers and reverberate throughout most sectors of the economy. Compared to business-as-usual, some sectors are expected to grow under a green transition (e.g. utilities – especially renewable energy – and waste management and remediation services); others may see lower growth (e.g. certain heavy industry sub-sectors such as petroleum refining and petrochemical production), and the skills demand and employment profiles of many others could be transformed (e.g. mining, manufacturing, forestry).

These sectoral changes will directly affect workers and their ability to access decent work. For example, most sectors that are expected to grow under a green transition tend to have higher wages than the provincial average and will likely see growth in jobs that require high levels of education and specialized skills (e.g. science and engineering, operations management, skilled trades). This raises important questions regarding access to post-secondary education, skills development and re-training.

It also raises questions about which workers will experience positive impacts, and which workers will experience negative impacts. Importantly, there are a number of marginalized communities that currently face inequities and barriers to accessing decent work in Ontario, which may be exacerbated by the green transition. For example, women and racialized communities appear to be underrepresented in the utilities sector – which is expected to see rapid growth in a green transition – and increased “credentialism” in green sectors may disadvantage newcomers to Canada who lack the necessary Canadian experience.

Public policy has a pivotal role in addressing the labour market impacts associated with the green transition, and many of the policies for ensuring decent work in the green economy are the same as those for promoting decent work in any economy. In particular, active labour market policies and strong social policies – such as Employment Insurance, affordable and accessible post-secondary education, access to lifelong training and skills upgrading – will be essential to support workers in the green transition.
However, the green transition also poses some unique challenges as the governments increase their policy ambition. Policymakers should consider their options in key areas such as explicitly assessing the impacts on workers in green economy policy design, developing a comprehensive strategy to support workers in the transition to a green economy, tailoring workforce development measures, leveraging government procurement and spending power, rethinking broader social programs and striving for better data collection.

The transition to a green economy is happening irrespective of government direction. It is being driven by citizens and business and by global trends. In Ontario, the transition will have unique reverberations – both positive and negative – on economic sectors and the people who work in them. But the pace of the green transition worldwide cannot be fully predicted, posing a challenge to policymakers. Nevertheless, policymakers need to forecast and anticipate these impacts as best as they can, and ensure that policies and programs are in place that harness the full strength of Ontario’s diverse workforce to succeed in the green economy of the 21st century.

This report begins by defining the conversation and outlining the recent changes in Ontario’s green transition and broader economy, followed by a scan of sectoral impacts informed by a literature review on the impacts of environmental policy, as well as a modelling analysis of Ontario’s cap and trade program. The impacts on jobs and workers on the ground are explored, particularly for those already facing systemic barriers. Finally, the report highlights a number of policy options for supporting workers in Ontario’s transition to a green economy.